The Climate Imperative

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is not merely a climate target; it is a lifeline. It could shield 1.7 billion people from extreme heat, prevent the displacement of 280 million people due to sea level rise, and halve the risk of species extinction compared to a 2°C trajectory. It also offers the best chance to limit climate-induced disasters such as droughts, floods, and food insecurity.

However, current global pledges are off track. Projections suggest a temperature rise of 2.6°C to 3.1°C by 2100, with the 1.5°C threshold potentially breached as early as 2028. Urgent, scalable, and commercially viable action is required.

This white paper outlines a business-led innovation model that aligns the clean energy transition with core business performance. It reframes sustainability from a compliance burden to a growth enabler. It introduces Breathe, a consultancy founded to unlock commercial value through clean energy and sustainability strategies. It demonstrates how structured ESG innovation and expert project delivery can drive rapid adoption and measurable impact.

The stakes of inaction are clear if we keep on our trajectory of 2.8°C:

  • 74% of the global population is exposed to deadly heat waves every year, resulting in millions of deaths

  • Over 3.3 billion people (40% of the global population) are exposed to multi-hazard climate risks

  • Global crop yields (wheat, rice) decline 20% to 40%, and food prices soar

  • Sea levels rise by c.1m by 2100, Coral reefs all collapse, and the sea will continue to rise to c.3m

  • 30% to 50% of species lose their habitat and are vulnerable to extinction


On this trajectory, climate change will be overwhelming and destabilising; it will devastate the poorest nations and affect everyone on the planet. It’s a future we must avoid! However, the world is falling short. Without more decisive action, the 1.5°C threshold may be crossed within just a few years. To alter this course and accelerate change, the energy transition must be commercially viable. It must improve business performance rather than hinder it.

Targets and Progress

The UK Paris Agreement
68% reduction in emissions by 2030

1) The UK’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for the Paris Agreement is to reduce emissions by 68% below 1990 levels by 2030.

By 2030 the UK needs to be 68% below 1990 level of 822 MtCO₂e = 263 MtCO₂e.

As of 2024 we are currently at 414 MtCO₂e. That means that we need an additional 36% cut from today’s emissions in just 6 years, which means we need to increase from a CAGR reduction of 2.5% (2022 to 2024) to 7.1% (2024 to 2030), i.e. triple our speed reduction (see graph below)

The Clean Power Act
100% of Electricity demand from Clean Power” by 2030

2) The Clean Power 2030 Action Plan aims for 100% of electricity demand to be met by “clean power” in a typical year.

Of that clean generation, at least 95% of domestic electricity generation should come from low-carbon sources (wind, solar, nuclear, biomass), with no more than 5% from unabated gas (gas without carbon capture).

Over the last 12 months, Clean / low-carbon electricity from wind, solar, nuclear, biomass, and hydropower accounted for about 57% of electricity generation, and the share from fossil fuels fell to 31.8% (mainly unabated gas); the rest is typically exported. In August, zero-carbon sources, wind, solar, nuclear, and hydro reached 62%. The split of the energy sources can be seen in real time by looking at the GB energy dashboard (as seen below)

Simply put, the trend is in the right direction: fossil share, especially of unabated gas, is falling. Clean sources are growing. However, the current pace of 4% is not yet fast enough to meet the 2030 Clean Power target as the pace needs to increase to 8.8% to deliver the target.

As you can see in the graph above, in 2010, there was low renewables penetration, and nuclear was the bulk. By 2015, there was a significant expansion of wind, solar, and biomass, with the low-carbon share jumping to 45%. 2020 saw a record in renewable energy output, with coal almost eliminated, and COVID-19 reducing demand. In 2021, the low-carbon electricity dropped due to unusually low wind output and more gas generation. In 2022, wind recovered somewhat, but nuclear outages reduced its share. In 2023, renewables continued to grow but gas didn’t change much. In 2024, gas usage began to decline, with renewables increasing to 50.4% and nuclear energy at 14.3%. 2025 is not yet complete, but mid-year results suggest a slight dip due to lower wind/solar output due to weather and nuclear outages. In 2024, c.66% of the UK’s electricity came from low-carbon sources (renewables + nuclear). Renewable share wind + solar + hydro is about 36% for electricity generation. Fossil fuel sources, gas use is lower and coal has ceased within electricity production

UK Electricity Generation from Solar Power
45 to 47 GW by 2030

3) The UK government has set a target of 45–47 GW of installed solar PV capacity by 2030

This under the Solar Roadmap and the Clean Power 2030 plan, compared to around 15 GW operating today. This target combines both ground-mounted and rooftop projects, with the government highlighting that 9 to 10 GW could come specifically from smaller-scale rooftop solar (commercial, industrial, and small ground-mount) by the end of the decade.

Recent deployment has been steady but modest: the UK added around 1.1 GW per year in 2022 and 2023, equivalent to around 6% compound annual growth rate since 2020. To meet the 2030 target, however, this growth rate needs to accelerate sharply to around 18% CAGR, requiring annual additions of 3 to 4 GW per year.

Government analysis emphasises the role of rooftop projects that do not trigger large Transmission Impact Assessments, as these can connect more quickly and avoid lengthy grid upgrade delays. If the roadmap is achieved, solar generation would rise from today’s c.16 TWh per year to 40–45 TWh by 2030, providing a significant share of low-cost, distributed electricity close to where it is consumed.

UK Electricity Generation from Wind
70 to 80 GW by 2030

4) The UK government has set a target of 50 GW offshore wind capacity by 2030 as part of the British Energy Security Strategy and the Clean Power 2030 plan, alongside ambitions for ~30 GW of onshore wind. Together, this would bring UK total wind capacity to around 70–80 GW by 2030, compared to ~32 GW today.

Within this, onshore wind is expected to play a significant role: recent reforms in the Energy Security Act (2023) are intended to make planning for onshore turbines in England easier, though devolved nations (Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland) already account for the bulk of UK onshore growth. Offshore wind remains the cornerstone, with more than 13 GW of projects under construction and ~80 GW in the development pipeline, according to DESNZ and RenewableUK.

The UK added just over 3 GW of wind capacity in 2023 (mainly offshore), representing a ~10% CAGR since 2010. However, to meet the 2030 targets, additions need to accelerate sharply: an average of 6–7 GW per year, or nearly double the current pace. DESNZ modelling suggests that if the pipeline is delivered, annual wind generation could increase from today’s ~85 TWh to 200–250 TWh by 2030, covering more than half of UK electricity demand.